Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-23 4.573372 5.452060 6.426992 7.585076 8.919144 10.403581 12.176002
2025-03-30 3.271431 4.447868 5.901131 7.809816 10.229829 13.173470 16.999658
2025-04-06 2.411779 3.683649 5.408435 7.874081 11.255949 15.672718 21.806591
2025-04-13 1.828403 3.102012 4.978321 7.864768 12.095771 17.956153 26.543926
2025-04-20 1.568054 2.907574 5.021989 8.475274 13.813209 21.556135 33.383771
2025-04-27 1.300932 2.628047 4.864940 8.727982 14.997293 24.478554 39.508323
2025-05-04 1.109147 2.425541 4.781391 9.058929 16.306223 27.672528 46.275617
2025-05-11 0.910242 2.157756 4.528753 9.052170 17.043900 30.023814 51.924008
2025-05-18 0.717917 1.851285 4.142937 8.739640 17.207634 31.443764 56.187875
2025-05-25 0.556241 1.564118 3.734111 8.309882 17.093151 32.362708 59.673153
2025-06-01 0.457483 1.392224 3.521779 8.215637 17.555391 34.270057 64.907437
2025-06-08 0.376506 1.239956 3.319798 8.105643 17.962724 36.096015 70.111309
2025-06-15 0.342938 1.206686 3.385414 8.578140 19.575590 40.258207 79.776104
2025-06-22 0.293423 1.114047 3.295189 8.702552 20.514290 43.274457 87.645739
2025-06-29 0.247094 1.015303 3.169639 8.727680 21.250170 45.968461 95.122419
2025-07-06 0.206504 0.919959 3.031935 8.701094 21.869042 48.480129 102.425865
2025-07-13 0.196734 0.927200 3.171512 9.360651 24.034743 54.160487 116.018744
2025-07-20 0.174776 0.882396 3.156513 9.633603 25.369499 58.281253 126.884956
2025-07-27 0.157994 0.851266 3.174810 9.993048 26.932086 62.965061 139.106525
2025-08-03 0.134050 0.780973 3.059892 9.985372 27.643998 65.949951 148.174681
2025-08-10 0.106933 0.683418 2.835633 9.645022 27.529981 67.195677 153.856328
2025-08-17 0.082694 0.585087 2.582003 9.176898 27.047536 67.608849 157.866180
2025-08-24 0.068636 0.529783 2.461947 9.074198 27.457153 69.975705 166.005800